CAFG Perspective is a periodic commentary designed to provide you with a viewpoint regarding current economic and market conditions. The content of CAFG Perspective is prepared by Tom Chernesky and/or one or more of our strategic partners.
When the scientists said "15 days to slow the spread," some of us actually believed that by Easter the shutdowns would end. That was last year. Now, a full year, and $5 trillion in government spending later, we may finally be getting...
Read MoreThe federal budget deficit hit an all-time record high of $3.1 trillion last year. With the passage of the recent blowout "stimulus" bill, it's set to be even higher in 2021. Now we watch and wait for a potential infrastructure bill,...
Read MoreThings are looking up for the US economy.Later this week we'll get an update on real GDP growth for the 4th quarter of 2020. We estimate that'll be revised up to a 4.3% annual rate of growth from a prior estimate of 4.0%.Meanwhile,...
Read MoreThe budget deficit for fiscal year 2020, which ended 9/30/2020, was $3.1 trillion, the highest ever on record in dollar terms, and the highest relative to GDP since World War II. This year the deficit will be even larger.Before the...
Read MoreGive Thanks! The US economy continues to heal. Payrolls keep growing, unemployment claims - though still elevated - are shrinking, key measures of the manufacturing and service sectors remain well into positive territory, and, as this...
Read MoreTo reiterate, this Thursday morning we expect the government to report a huge, and virtually unprecedented, surge of a 33.4% annualized growth rate in real GDP growth for the third quarter. There are still a few monthly reports due...
Read MoreThe narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click COVID-19...
Read MoreThursday's initial report on real GDP growth in the second quarter is going to break records, and not in a good way. Right now, it looks like the US economy shrank at a 35% annual rate in Q2. To put that in perspective, the worst...
Read MoreThe narrative around COVID-19 is constantly changing, so we thought we would put a one-pager out once a week with some of the charts and data that we think are important to keep an eye on to help gain some perspective. Click COVID-19...
Read MoreA resurgence of new Coronavirus cases around the country has created uncertainty for investors. Stock markets fell last week, not because of the virus, but because investors fear another round of economy-killing, government-mandated...
Read MoreTurning off the global economic light-switch, and then turning it partially back on, has sent shockwaves through economic data that, while anticipated, have been jaw-dropping in both directions.For example, US retail sales plunged a...
Read MoreThe one key takeaway from last week's Fed meeting is that monetary policymakers are set to keep short-term interest rates near zero for as far as the eye can see. Not forever, but at least until 2023. Keep this in mind in the week...
Read MoreA full recovery from the COVID-19/Shutdown Crisis is going to take a long time. We don't anticipate reaching a new peak for real GDP until the end of 2021; we don't anticipate a 4% unemployment rate until 2024.However, there is a...
Read MoreWhen the employment report for April is released this Friday, the economic damage from the deepest of the Coronavirus shutdowns will become clear. We estimate that nonfarm payrolls will be down roughly 22 million versus March, and the...
Read MoreDoctors think differently than economists. They put patients with a potential for brain damage in an artificial coma to stop swelling, and when it stops, they bring them out. This fits with the oath all doctors take, which states...
Read MoreBrian Wesbury, Chief Economist with First Trust, who is one of CAFG's investment partners, has put together a video which I feel puts perspective on The Coronavirus Contraction. We will continue to share information from our best...
Read MoreBack in July 2008, then-Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson said he wanted a "bazooka" to deal with financial threats to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Paulson wanted Congress to give him an unlimited credit line for these enterprises. This...
Read MoreLess than a month ago markets were at a record high, as healthy data on the US economy signaled continued growth on the horizon. Then, as Coronavirus made its way to continental Europe and the United States, markets went into a...
Read MoreNo one knows with any real certainty how much, or for how long, the Coronavirus will impact the US economy. What we do know is that it will have an impact. And, after data releases of recent weeks, we also know that the US economy was...
Read MoreMonday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% - the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains for the year....
Read MoreThe longest economic recovery on record continues, with January being the 128th consecutive month of growth. The first seven years, from mid-2009 through 2016 saw average real GDP growth of 2.2%. Since the start of 2017, US real GDP...
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Monday, November 25, 2019
As you may have heard in the news, Charles Schwab and TD Ameritrade have reached an agreement for Schwab to acquire TD Ameritrade. The combined company will retain the Schwab name, and will reflect the best that each legacy firm has...
Read MoreOne of our favorite economic parables is the Fish Story, from Paul Zane Pilzer's 1990 book, "Unlimited Wealth." It is an excellent tool for thinking about wealth creation, inequality and redistribution.Imagine 10 people live on an...
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Friday, November 8, 2019
I am please to welcome Taiber Kosmala & Associates (TKA) to our CAFG Wealth Management resource team. TKA is an independent investment consulting firm. They provide institutional and wealth management clients such as CAFG with unbiased...
Read MoreSince the earliest days of the current economic expansion, there have been naysayers asserting the US was on the brink of another recession. Remember all the fear about another wave of home foreclosures, or a disaster in commercial...
Read MoreTrade disputes have been an ongoing soap opera since President Trump took office. From steel tariffs to trade skirmishes with China, Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the European Union, among others, it's been hard to keep...
Read MoreIn spite of all the fear-mongering about a recession, Friday's employment report clearly showed we are not in an economic downturn. The best news in the report was that the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest most Americans have...
Read MoreNever underestimate the ability of politicians to mess up a good thing. They're certainly trying in Washington, D.C. Unfortunately, many people are concerned about the wrong thing. Nice even numbers fascinate people, and through the...
Read MoreWe've all heard of the Rorschach test - you know, the one where you look at an ink blot and say what you see. The theory is that it's a tunnel into someone's subconscious thoughts or desires. If you're obsessed with hockey you might...
Read MoreThe threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so...
Read MoreMore than five years ago the European Central Bank adopted negative interest rates as a policy tool to address economic weakness in the Eurozone. Starting at -0.1%, eventually the target short-term rate fell to -0.4%.In Europe, as in...
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Monday, July 1, 2019
As we near this 4th of July holiday, I wanted to share a video that I found inspirational. It shows one of the many traveling walls that visit local communities throughout the country as a memorial to Vietnam veterans. The wall serves...
Read MoreAt the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts.The US economy doesn't need rate...
Read MoreSince hitting new all-time highs two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2% as trade negotiations with China hit a snag. Last week, the US announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. This morning, China announced new tariffs on...
Read MoreIf you take a long hike up a mountain, there's plenty to appreciate along the way. But, sometimes, you just have to stop and enjoy the view. With that in mind, let's forget about the April employment report – which saw a...
Read MoreLess than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative,"...
Read MoreWhat a difference a month makes. Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first quarter economic growth to near zero. The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model was projecting real GDP growth at a 0.2% annual rate in Q1,...
Read MoreIt's March 8, 2009. The market's down 56% from its all-time high, unemployment is over 8% and hurtling toward 10%, it's just been reported that real GDP dropped at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4 of 2008, and it feels like the world is coming...
Read MoreWe've written about it over and over, and while many advisors seem to understand, the media, politicians, and many analysts don't...or won't. So, we thought we'd try again to explain why so many people don't understand the nearly...
Read MoreFor the more than three decades we have been involved in analysis of the economy, one nagging constant has been pessimistic prognostications over the U.S. debt. Now once again, debt is the news de jour. Consumer, business, and...
Read MoreTalk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism...
Read MoreThe Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary...
Read MoreLast Friday, the 10-year Treasury Note closed at a yield of 2.85%. That's up from 2.41% at the end of 2017, but down from the peak of 3.24% on November 8th, and well below where fundamentals suggest yields should be. In the last two...
Read MoreIt's that time of the year again. Holiday sales data show surging online sales while foot traffic at brick and mortar stores remains tepid. If you have a sense of déjà vu, it's because you heard the same stories last year...
Read MorePolitics and economics are interwoven. Government grants licenses, enforces contracts and the rule of law, provides fire and police protection, a national defense, and can call on resources to recover from crisis. Without these...
Read MoreBrian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 11/8/2018 No fireworks in today's FOMC statement, as Chairman Powell and company held rates steady while reinforcing their outlook. Unemployment remains low,...
Read MoreThe conventional wisdom is that the stock market rally is over. In the video below, Brian Wesbury - Chief Economist with First Trust, explains why he feels stocks are still cheap.
Read MoreNot long ago, many investors were kicking themselves for not investing more when the stock market was cheaper. But when stocks fall, like they did last week, many investors have a hard time buying for fear stocks may go lower still....
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