CAFG Perspective is a periodic commentary designed to provide you with a viewpoint regarding current economic and market conditions. The content of CAFG Perspective is prepared by Tom Chernesky and/or one or more of our strategic partners.
We've all heard of the Rorschach test - you know, the one where you look at an ink blot and say what you see. The theory is that it's a tunnel into someone's subconscious thoughts or desires. If you're obsessed with hockey you might...
Read MoreThe threat of a recession is on the minds of investors. Some traditional measures of the yield curve are inverted and, in the past, those have preceded recessions. The link between an inverted yield curve and a recession has so...
Read MoreMore than five years ago the European Central Bank adopted negative interest rates as a policy tool to address economic weakness in the Eurozone. Starting at -0.1%, eventually the target short-term rate fell to -0.4%.In Europe, as in...
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Monday, July 1, 2019
As we near this 4th of July holiday, I wanted to share a video that I found inspirational. It shows one of the many traveling walls that visit local communities throughout the country as a memorial to Vietnam veterans. The wall serves...
Read MoreAt the Friday close the market consensus was that the Federal Reserve would cut short-term interest rates by 50 - 75 basis points in 2019, with another 25 basis point cut in 2020. We think this is nuts.The US economy doesn't need rate...
Read MoreSince hitting new all-time highs two weeks ago, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.2% as trade negotiations with China hit a snag. Last week, the US announced new tariffs on Chinese imports. This morning, China announced new tariffs on...
Read MoreIf you take a long hike up a mountain, there's plenty to appreciate along the way. But, sometimes, you just have to stop and enjoy the view. With that in mind, let's forget about the April employment report – which saw a...
Read MoreLess than two months ago, conventional wisdom thought the US economy was in real trouble. The consensus expected real GDP would barely grow, if at all, in the first quarter of 2019. Many were in a tizzy about the "second derivative,"...
Read MoreWhat a difference a month makes. Last month many economists had pushed down their estimates for first quarter economic growth to near zero. The Atlanta Fed's "GDP Now" model was projecting real GDP growth at a 0.2% annual rate in Q1,...
Read MoreIt's March 8, 2009. The market's down 56% from its all-time high, unemployment is over 8% and hurtling toward 10%, it's just been reported that real GDP dropped at a 6.2% annual rate in Q4 of 2008, and it feels like the world is coming...
Read MoreWe've written about it over and over, and while many advisors seem to understand, the media, politicians, and many analysts don't...or won't. So, we thought we'd try again to explain why so many people don't understand the nearly...
Read MoreFor the more than three decades we have been involved in analysis of the economy, one nagging constant has been pessimistic prognostications over the U.S. debt. Now once again, debt is the news de jour. Consumer, business, and...
Read MoreTalk about destroying a narrative. On Friday, the Labor Department reported 312,000 new jobs in December, with an additional 58,000 from upward revisions to prior months. Recession talk got crushed. The Pouting Pundits of Pessimism...
Read MoreThe Bible story of the virgin birth is at the center of much of the holiday cheer this time of year. The book of Luke tells us that Mary and Joseph traveled to Bethlehem because Caesar Augustus decreed a census should be taken. Mary...
Read MoreLast Friday, the 10-year Treasury Note closed at a yield of 2.85%. That's up from 2.41% at the end of 2017, but down from the peak of 3.24% on November 8th, and well below where fundamentals suggest yields should be. In the last two...
Read MoreIt's that time of the year again. Holiday sales data show surging online sales while foot traffic at brick and mortar stores remains tepid. If you have a sense of déjà vu, it's because you heard the same stories last year...
Read MorePolitics and economics are interwoven. Government grants licenses, enforces contracts and the rule of law, provides fire and police protection, a national defense, and can call on resources to recover from crisis. Without these...
Read MoreBrian S. Wesbury, Chief EconomistRobert Stein, Deputy Chief Economist Date: 11/8/2018 No fireworks in today's FOMC statement, as Chairman Powell and company held rates steady while reinforcing their outlook. Unemployment remains low,...
Read MoreThe conventional wisdom is that the stock market rally is over. In the video below, Brian Wesbury - Chief Economist with First Trust, explains why he feels stocks are still cheap.
Read MoreNot long ago, many investors were kicking themselves for not investing more when the stock market was cheaper. But when stocks fall, like they did last week, many investors have a hard time buying for fear stocks may go lower still....
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